Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
