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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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